The fact that today is 2 days to Christmas and there have been a very dismal market move upwards, I think this sets up a bad tone for the markets going into the first quarter of next year.
The market strength is just not there and using technical analysis looking both the DOW and Nasdaq charts it seems the the DJIA is going sideways and the Nasdaq is starting to trend down. Both the DOW and Nasdaq shows declining volumes as well.
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Looking at current economic events, it doesn’t seem like there will be any trigger for a “Santa Claus” rally in the markets this year. Not, just the macro picture is saying this, the technical analysis of the charts say the same thing, there has been a breakdown in the price actions across all markets around the world.
I personally have a bad feeling about December 2011 and January 2012 for the markets. Read the article below by ZeroHedge for more details.
All U.S stock market indexes took roughly a 3.5% haircut today. Question is this, “Is it down from here?” and “Is there going to be a santa claus rally this year?”
The answer to both of these question is who knows, anybody’s guess. The stock market now a days have pretty much been manipulated by the U.S Government and Federal Exchange who pump borrowed /printed money into the markets to inflate them.
Gary Schilling the author of “The Age of De-Leveraging” thinks there will be more pain ahead. As the economy stalls, demand for goods and commodities will fall causing deflation and subsequently stock markets will fall.
I recently added more HQD.TO (Horizon Nasdaq Bear ETF on TSX) position, the reason is because I foresee limited upside and more downside risk within the next 1.5 years. The Nasdaq from here might pop a little higher towards 2700 but I do not think that would happen this year.
The 2007 violent sharp downward move happend on Oct.29th which signal the bear market that eventually ended and bottomed on March, 2009. From the beginning of the bear market crash to the bottom the timeframe was 17 months roughly. The pattern is pretty much the same for all markets Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Lucky I just switched my TD Precious Metal Fund over to TD Canadian Bond fund. I moved my TD Precious Metal Fund over when it closed at the NAV of $79.48 about a week or so ago and on the day gold drop $64.90 (Sept 22, 2011), the closing NAV on Sept 22nd of the TD Precious Metal Fund is $70.64. Wow, that is a drop of almost $9. One thing about precious metal mutual funds is that it moves in tandem with mainly the stock prices of gold mining companies, and it would seem that the gold mining companies also took a hit.
Looking at the charts of most U.S indexes over the last 2 weeks or so, it is clear that things are definitely volatile. The stock market have been bouncing up and down and having trouble breaking past previous ceiling. The markets are trading in a range right now.
I’ve been keeping a close eye on the Nasdaq and it has been trading in range right now between 2350 to 2470. There seems to be downward pressure because every time it rallies up, it cannot seem to get past 2470 to shoot through previous high of around 2560.
All over the financial news, they say that traders are all waiting for an announcement from Ben Bernake at the Jackson Hole, economic conference. So, that is why there is a range being formed until the Friday announcement.
If this future trader is betting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is going towards near 2009 lows of 8200, then it should take the Nasdaq also down to near 2009 lows, which is around 1750 points. I would have to agree with this view and it might take several months to get to that level, however you never know sometimes with the market, so we will just have to wait and see.
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