I’ve been anticipating the U.S stock market decline for a while now and this week the Dow Jones industrial average declined below 12,000.
I believe there is more downside coming in the near future. My initial assumption was that this decline will start near the end of June, however with markets it is always difficult to know when it will actually happen.
As the stock market loses strength here and has problems moving higher I have increased my positions in both the Horizon Nasdaq bear ETF (HQD.TO) and the Horizon S&P bear ETF (HSD.TO). The Nasdaq index has had problems breaking above 2800 and the S&P has no ooomph to get past 1340 and it is stays like this for another month then I think we are going down.
I recently sold off my position in Claymore’s Gold ETF that is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (CGL.TO). I bought at $12.45 in early January and just sold at $13.58 which is roughly a return of 9% minus commissions. That is just under 9% return for 5 months, that is not bad considering money market and guaranteed investment certificates (GIC’s) are interest are very low.
Here is what Harry Dent is predicting for the coming future for stocks and commodities. I agree with him that the stock market is too crazy hot right now and is due for major correction in the future. Besides corporate profits, nothing much else is supporting the lofty stock market valuations. Jobs are not getting better nor is real estate and growth is slowing.
Eric Sprott talks about gold and silver prices, governments and his physical silver fund.
As I already suspected, Gold and Silver is not a bubble simply because the U.S Government and European Governments keep printing money. Fiat currency may collapse and become worthless…like the U.S dollar’s recent declines and also because of the fact that the world lose confidence in the United States and not buy its treasuries. Once that happens the U.S will not have any money left to run the Government and social services and will need to print more thereby collapsing currency even more (viscous circle).
About 2 weeks ago I posted about entering a possible in HXD-TO the Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear Plus ETF. Well, about a week ago I opened a position in HXD-TO. The Toronto Stock Exchange peaked at around 14,500 where the arrow is on the chart above, however this then it has had trouble reaching that level.
Well before the Japan earthquake and tsunami the stock markets were already looking a little weak as if they have almost reached their top. However, like the event on September 11th back in year 2001 which saw the U.S markets taking a dive on the destruction of 2 buildings and over 5000 people killed, the Japan earthquake and tsunami will be the catalyst of the next leg down of the stock market as the damage is far greater and the economic impact is larger.
The Toronto Stock Exchange look like it is set to hit the previous high of around 15,000 points at which time my prediction is that it will take a turn downward. This could be a correction of sorts that I could profit from. The 15,000 level also looks to be a top of a cycle and from there it could very well be down hill for a while.
Yesterday gold took a hit from roughly $1412 down to $1380 range…that was a drop of roughly $30 some odd dollars. I’ve been watching gold for a while, though I should have gotten long ago…I think there is still more upside for gold.
Right on December 31, 2010, I sold my Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull (HOU.TO) ETF Shares…this was the last day to do it. Because the Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull (HOU.TO) ETF Shares invest in Cruide Oil futures and futures / options always expire.
Crude oil recently hit $90 a barrel and then retreated, however all the talk in the market is that cost per barrel of crude oil will hit about $100. In light of this I purchased a few weeks ago ETF shares in Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull (HOU.TO) when oil was at a price of $84…right now it is trading at $88-89. Few factors at play, we are going into the winter months and there will be a rise in demand next year according to most financial websites.
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